Tracking Energy Attacks

Unfortunate but inevitable? 2 car bombs in Niger targeting French mine and barracks

Thu, 23 May 2013 10:52:00 -0400

Unfortunate but inevitable? 2 car bombs in Niger targeting French mine and barracks: NIAMEY, Niger...

Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline bombed... again

Mon, 13 May 2013 12:20:00 -0400

Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline bombed... again : In the 2nd attack in a week, militants used a reported 6...

"British oil company BP said it is withdrawing some non-essential staff from Libya after..."

Mon, 13 May 2013 07:23:51 -0400

“British oil company BP said it is withdrawing some non-essential staff from Libya after...

Africa Progress Panel released a report on the management - er...

Mon, 13 May 2013 07:14:59 -0400

Africa Progress Panel released a report on the management - er mismanagement - of Africa’s natural resource weath. The pic is a nice infographic visualizing the who has what’ on the continent.

Skimming the report I found myself asking: Is there anything surprising here? Nope - sadly, same old story of revenue mismanagement, no sign of trickle down, widening gap between rich and poor, etc. This is especially disappointing when one considers that between 2000 and 2011, Equatorial Guinea was the world’s fastest-growing economy, with output growth averaging 17%. In 2012, Angola, Niger and Sierra Leone outperformed China; and Ghana, Mozambique and Zambia outperformed India. Yet, visit some of these countries and growth is hard to see. Sure, there are white elephant projects - like the building of skyscrapers or residential compounds that a majority of the public do not have access to - but the true signs of development - such as electricity and road infrastructure - are negligible.

If we look at the poverty numbers, it seems there have been a few small strides. Tanzania, Mozambique and Ghana have all reduced poverty rates in the last decade, but there in each country the poverty rate is still over 50% of population. Despite increased growth in Cameroon and Mali there has been no effect on poverty and in Nigeria and Zambia poverty numbers have actually increased.

But if we look at the true champion on the continent it is Botswana where natural resource governance has been more successful because they have built institutions and adopted legislation that establishes clear rules on the management of resource revenues, along with independent institutions that uphold those rules.This leads me to wonder: how can the Botswana (or even Chile) inform or inspire more strategic corporate social responsibility interventions in countries w/ high national resource wealth but history of mismanagement? Are there ‘governance interventions’ that multinational companies can make to help bolster and support institutional growth because it is in its strategic interest? (Note: I include another pic from the report that summarizes the recommendations for companies).

CSM piece Unpacking Some of the Security Complexities in Algeria

Sun, 12 May 2013 08:32:44 -0400

CSM piece Unpacking Some of the Security Complexities in Algeria: Algerian moves to increase...

The Power of Contagion: from network studies to financial crisis

Fri, 10 May 2013 10:05:00 -0400

Just saw this on Twitter: Statistical Tests for Contagion in Observational Network Studies...

"A court in Saudi Arabia has issued a primary ruling condemning a Jordanian and six Saudi nationals..."

Wed, 08 May 2013 10:59:42 -0400

“A court in Saudi Arabia has issued a primary ruling condemning a Jordanian and six Saudi...

New Report on Oil Investment & Conflict in South Sudan

Wed, 08 May 2013 08:54:04 -0400

New Report on Oil Investment & Conflict in South Sudan: Just came across a new study carried out by...

"With some additional security considerations in the mix, Sonatrach and Anadarko have started first..."

Wed, 08 May 2013 08:39:00 -0400

“With some additional security considerations in the mix, Sonatrach and Anadarko have started...

Oil Pipeline Targeted in Iraq - part of emerging trend

Tue, 07 May 2013 09:03:00 -0400

Oil Pipeline Targeted in Iraq - part of emerging trend: The pathway to an imploding Iraq is not only...

Niger Delta: The coming violent contagion

Fri, 03 May 2013 11:54:00 -0400

Niger Delta: The coming violent contagion: Many news reports coming out about the growing sense of...

Back-to-Back Energy Infrastructure Attacks in Yemen

Fri, 03 May 2013 11:02:00 -0400

Energy infrastructure (EI) attacks in Yemen have been going on for awhile now, escalating since...

"The IMB says that in the first quarter of 2013, there were only five reported piracy incidents off..."

Fri, 03 May 2013 10:06:20 -0400

“The IMB says that in the first quarter of 2013, there were only five reported piracy...

If things look different it is because they are = we moved

Fri, 03 May 2013 09:06:00 -0400

This site was formally hosted at Posterous but has now shifted to Tumblr (hence the difference in...

Brief video on Niger Delta & Growing Oil Theft Business

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 10:50:59 -0400

Brief video on Niger Delta & Growing Oil Theft Business: International oil companies say crude theft...

Baloch militants hit pipeline

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 10:29:32 -0400

Baloch militants hit pipeline: Nothing new here - Baloch militants continue to target energy...

"Nigerian troops operating in the oil-rich Niger Delta region arrested 76 suspects and seized a..."

Mon, 29 Apr 2013 09:06:10 -0400

“Nigerian troops operating in the oil-rich Niger Delta region arrested 76 suspects and seized...

Tackling Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability in Violence-Prone...

Wed, 27 Feb 2013 04:26:00 -0500

Tackling Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability in Violence-Prone Zones

Photo taken by author during field research in the Niger Delta.

Below is a brief written for the Fletcher Forum that I co-authored with my colleague Raymond Gilpin at USIP. In it we basically capture the major themes that are featured in our forthcoming study on energy infrastructure vulnerabilty, a project supported by the USIP Center for Sustainable Economies.

Tackling Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability in Violence-Prone Zones

by Jennifer Giroux and Raymond Gilpin on February 27, 2013

Nearly two weeks after the January 16 attack on the In Amenas gas facility in southeastern Algeria, gunmen attacked a gas pipeline in Ain Chikh, a city seventy-five miles southwest of Algiers. These attacks expose the vulnerability of energy infrastructure in regions experiencing violent unrest. The attack on In Amenas resulted in the death of more than sixty people, the traumatizing of many more, and substantial damage to the facility over the course of a four-day stand-off, while the attack in Ain Chikh was relatively smaller, with two community guards losing their lives. Despite their difference in scale, these attacks are part of a larger trend of violent non-state actors targeting energy infrastructure in key energy-producing regions. Responding to these attacks with a “business-as-usual” strategy will not suffice.

Looking beyond Algeria, such targeting has come in the wake of political or civil unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Following Egypt’s January 2011 revolution, suspected Bedouin activists in Sinai targeted natural gas infrastructure on a near monthly basis, creating energy shortages in Jordan and Israel. Political instability in Syria and Yemen has also led to repeated attacks on, respectively, pipelines and electrical infrastructure since 2011 and throughout 2012. The most recent attack in Yemen, on February 8, 2013, targeted the main crude export pipeline, which has been repeatedly bombed, causing a long closure of the line in 2012. Finally, recent cyberattacks on 30,000 of Saudi Aramco’s hard drives and Qatar’s RasGas computer systems in the summer of 2012 reveal the evolving nature and scope of energy infrastructure attacks. While the motivations for these attacks vary (political messaging, criminality, undermining regimes, etc.), the consequences have invariably been dire in terms of fatalities, lost earnings, destroyed facilities, emboldened militia groups, and reputational damage to companies or countries looking to attract investment.

This trend, however, is not isolated to the MENA region. The Energy Infrastructure Attack Database (EIAD), developed by the Center for Security Studies at ETH University in collaboration with the Paul Scherrer Institute, finds that average annual attacks on energy infrastructure have risen from slightly less than 200 worldwide between 1980 and 1999 to almost 400 between 2000 and 2011. The EIAD data also reveal a tendency for attacks to cluster in certain regions and form a wave-like pattern over time. The crests of these waves tend to correspond with flashpoints of instability characterized by localized “bursts” of violence aimed at energy infrastructure. Such clusters have recently occurred not only across MENA but also in parts of South America and South Asia.

Given this information, it is clear that political instability and civil unrest in and around energy-producing countries trigger attacks, which can snowball into clusters. It is also clear that a more nuanced understanding and appreciation of energy infrastructure vulnerability is needed, particularly in violence-prone regions. We should not view energy infrastructure simply through the prism of physical infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, facilities) but should also consider the human capital (e.g., employees) and virtual networks (e.g., information infrastructure) that support operations, as well as interrelationships with the local context that can change the understanding and meaning of energy infrastructure. Rather than being simply a function of business activities, energy generation, and revenue, energy infrastructure can become a messaging and fundraising tool for the criminal and the aggrieved. Indeed, its vulnerability can drive and exacerbate conflict.

A more holistic, cross-sectoral approach to securing energy infrastructure is thus needed in such volatile regions. First, practitioners and policymakers need to understand and acknowledge interrelationships among the various types of energy infrastructure and design interventions that fit the local context. To do this, companies must expand their capabilities with respect to security and community engagement and coordinate resources, form partnerships, and share information with other private and public actors.

Second, better diagnoses of operating contexts are vital. This includes adopting an evidence-based approach to understanding the power of contagion that creates clusters and the motivations and characteristics of violent non-state actors. Today’s violent militia groups have a complex mix of shifting economic, social, political, cultural, and ideological grievances. They are also transnational and often have different, if not competing, agendas. Consequently, multi-pronged strategies must seek to isolate extremists by using a socio-anthropological lens to develop a deeper understanding of them, support host communities through tailored community engagement activities, and enhance cross-border collaboration that could diminish the capacity of such groups to carry out attacks.

Third, analysis and engagement must be sustained, not sporadic. This is not an insurmountable challenge. On the contrary, shifting away from a reactionary “business-as-usual” strategy to a more holistic and tailored approach will improve risk management in such volatile spaces and could help companies get ahead of the next wave of attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Energy Infrastructure Vulnerability: Lessons from the Attack on Algeria's In Amenas Gas Plant

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 08:35:00 -0500

I co-authored a piece for USIP Olive Branch about the Algeria In Amenas Gas Plant attack. See full...

Energy Infrastructure Attacked in Algeria: What took so long? A sign of targeting shift?

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 13:11:00 -0500

Algeria is a puzzling case for the EI vulnerability study. Here is a case that has long had the...